Todays S&P Short Term Trading Bias: Bullish

24 September 2020

From S/R Trend area currently at 3200 (@ES)

Last Update: 24 September /00:00 EST

Accuracy Since Inception: 1039/1198 winners (85%)

Information on our methods

Market Fundamentals:

It may not be a ‘V’ recovery but recovering is what the U.S. economy seems to be doing. Since the March, 2020 low of 2237.40, the S&P 500 closed Friday at a new all-time high in just over 5 months.This incredible rally reflects the Fed/Treasury injection of $Trillions of newly minted dollars and the optimism which it has inspired, at least among the investing class. Job growth is still not up to speed but the Fed this week allowed that its overwhelming failure to drive any part of the real economy other than stock market price levels,hasn’t worked, which has finally led to the Banks Board of Governors to attempt a new scheme whereby it will stand by when, as or if,inflation and job growth get “hot”and will allow them to burn a bit before stepping in. This attitude sounds much like lenient parents who, upon realizing that the kids are using drugs,set limits on such behavior in an attempt to keep them happy while telling themselves they will be vigilant in preventing them from taking an overdose. So now, instead of targeting the failure to keep inflationat2%, the bank will embark on a quest to offset its disappointment with an “average” rate of currency devaluation that it hopes will, over time, equal that 2% bogie. Evidently, what the Powell pronouncement means is that, since nothing in the way of artificial stimulus has worked to date, the Fed is reverting to the policies of the 1970’s,that caused the massive inflation of the latter half of that decade,so as to make future historians reflect that, on average, we were able to manipulate the economy so that it resembles hundreds of years of relatively less stage-managed Federal Reserve schemes, in order to restore economic activity to historical meanderings.The first take on this from the market was negative as it suddenly became clear that the Fed might not, in future, be the backstop that allowed the Buy-the-Dipsters to assure themselves that any slowness in the market would be met with a new round of money printing. But that surmise is probably incorrect in that any deflationary stumble will be decided in favor of more printing until the new plan –likely after years of additional failures –leads Powell or his successors to divine a newer new ploy, to divert attention from previous disappointments. The facts are these:Near zero interest rates combined with currency debauchery has failed. Negative interest rates will lead to debt destruction and do exactly opposite of intentions, so reversion to a controlled inflationary monetary policy is the only tack left to avoid a total capsize of the ship of state. When that fails, as it eventually will, we will likely see anew scam constructed from the ashes of several previous deceptions,that will lead nowhere but will keep the bank in firm control of the levers of power. And who else to be at the tiller but the self-appointed mediator between industry and fiscal authorities than this esteemed body of financial technocrats? So, were on the path of constant goal post movement, rules changes and assorted ideologically driven policies that will end up where every other set of financial manipulations have ended in history.

Follow the cash!

Current Total Options PUT/CALL Ratio

Current U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data

Current Technical Sentiment:




SP500 emini Futures

Current Swing Pick(s):

LONG Amazon (AMZN @ 2905 / 21 September 2020 )

Target: 3125

SL 2850

Top Ten Equity holdings (Annual Portfolio)

Positions are generally targeted to be held for a year. However, market conditions can change and we always have a contingent plan in place

Current portfolio expected holding period: 30 December 2019 – 31 December 2020 – or until a replacement is required (most recent update – 30 Dec 19)

Portfolio is based on $100K starting balance @ $10K allocation per position

Name Quantity Purchase price Price Cost Market value Return % Return
6.00 $ 1,660.00 $ 3,004.48 $ 9,960.00 $ 18,026.88 8,066.88 80.99%
48.00 $ 212.00 $ 310.84 $ 10,176.00 $ 14,920.32 4,744.32 46.62%
370.00 $ 27.00 $ 38.63 $ 9,990.00 $ 14,293.10 4,303.10 43.07%
1,428.00 $ 7.00 $ 9.64 $ 9,996.00 $ 13,765.92 3,769.92 37.71%
115.00 $ 86.70 $ 107.48 $ 9,970.50 $ 12,360.20 2,389.70 23.97%
115.00 $ 87.00 $ 85.97 $ 10,005.00 $ 9,886.55 -118.45 -1.18%
68.00 $ 145.00 $ 138.69 $ 9,860.00 $ 9,430.92 -429.08 -4.35%
1,540.00 $ 6.50 $ 6.01 $ 10,010.00 $ 9,255.40 -754.60 -7.54%
295.00 $ 34.00 $ 28.25 $ 10,030.00 $ 8,333.75 -1,696.25 -16.91%
372.00 $ 26.90 $ 20.33 $ 10,006.80 $ 7,562.76 -2,444.04 -24.42%
$ 100,004.30 $ 117,835.80 17,831.50 17.83%